Historical Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change in China
12 December 2022
By Cassandra Chong and Charlene Tai
What is anthropogenic climate change?
Anthropogenic climate change refers to climate change that is caused by humans. Historically, climate change is a natural occurrence due to terrestrial factors such as the Milankovitch cycles. In the past, we have seen multiple inter-glacial periods, where temperatures are relatively warmer. However, other than natural influences, humanistic influences have accelerated the warming of the planet, alternating the planet’s climatic systems.
Climate change is due to the presence of the greenhouse effect, where heat is trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the increased emissions of GHGs due to human activities have accelerated the warming of our planet as more heat is trapped in the atmosphere as a result. Some human activities that are key accelerators of climate change are:
Electricity Generation: The main source of electricity (approximately 83%) in China is still the burning of fossil fuels. 40% of China’s carbon dioxide emissions are due to power generation.
Industrial Activities: Industrial activities, such as industrial agriculture and factories, have led to an increase in emissions of GHGs, such as methane, carbon dioxide, and man-made GHGs (e.g. CFCs, HFCs, PFCs).
Deforestation: The burning and cutting down of trees have reduced the absorption of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which increases the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, accelerating the greenhouse effect.
Historical Trends of GHG Emissions in China
Figure 1. Annual CO2 emissions of China
China’s carbon emissions have historically been low, and have started seeing a gradual increase since 1949. After entering the 21st century, the amount of carbon emissions started increasing at an accelerated rate. It overtook the United States to become the world’s largest annual emitter of carbon dioxide in 2006. However, in terms of per-capita emissions, due to its large population, it is only the 28th largest emitter of carbon dioxide.
Trends
As a result of the change in the climatic systems of our planet, China has seen how it has impacted its natural environment and socio-economic systems.
Direct Impacts of Climate Change in China
Direct impacts refer to changes to the environment that occur immediately due to climate change, and most direct impacts are natural impacts. As China spans a large area, it is home to various climates and weather conditions, leading to diverse impacts of climate change, However, studies have shown that on average, China has seen a rise of 1.1ºC in temperature in the past century and over the past 30 years, the sea level and sea surface temperature have increased 90 millimetres (mm) and 0.9ºC, respectively”. This has led to more severe natural impacts, such as but not limited to
Increased extreme weather events: Extreme weather events refers to the occurrence of unusual and severe weather conditions that have the potential to cause devastating impacts on society and the environment. Some examples of extreme weather hazards include but are not limited to heat waves, freezes, heavy precipitation, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, and floods.
Tropical Cyclones: Taking tropical cyclones as a case study, we can observe climate change’s impacts on nature. Tropical cyclones form when sea surface temperatures are at least 27ºC. years, the pre-conditions for tropical cyclone formation would be met more frequently. This means that society and nature would have to face the devastating impacts of tropical cyclones.
Rise in Sea Levels: Due to increasing temperatures globally, glaciers are melting and adding water to the ocean. For instance, glaciers in the Qilian mountains of China have been retreating at accelerating rates in recent years. Second, as the water warms up, the volume of seas has been rising worldwide, including in China, due to thermal expansion. This could easily lead to coastal flooding and the inundation of land near coastal areas.
Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change
Most impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems extend from the natural impacts:
On agriculture and food security: Increases in weather hazards, such as tropical cyclones and floods, due to climate change have made agricultural production unstable in China. In Southern China, extreme weather events have destroyed agricultural land. In 2020, devastating floods have led to the loss of 13 million acres of cropland and a cost of $21 billion. It is estimated that by 2050, China’s production of wheat, maize and rice will decrease by 37%. Given that these are historically the major crops that are consumed by the Chinese, it is evident that with such reduction alongside ongoing population increase, food demand will exceed supply eventually. Moreover, this issue is exacerbated when a majority of cropland in China is located on coastal flatlands across China, meaning that it is highly prone to tropical cyclones and floods. An increased probability of crop failure would imply that food security in China is threatened in the future.
On freshwater supply: Due to rising sea levels, the probability and occurrence of saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers have increased. This would salinise the groundwater supply, which may threaten freshwater supplies. Research has shown that the rapid population and economic growth in coastal regions of China have consumed a lot of groundwater. As a result, further salinisation of the water supply would deplete the region with more freshwater. Moreover, due to climate change, rainfall variability has severed in northern China. This has increased the frequency of droughts in the region, which has reduced the freshwater supply of the region.
On economic development: China has an unbalanced economic development across regions, with coastal regions being significantly more developed than inner China. Studies have shown that up to 72% of China’s GDP is concentrated within such regions. The increasing rate of sea levels rising poses a threat to the economic sustainability of China, given that most of these regions are less than 5m above sea level. Moreover, with tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events reaching areas up north, more coast regions with very well-developed economies are at risk of the destruction such events may bring. The dire consequences of climate change could lead to the collapse of China’s economy unless China takes action to adapt and mitigate climate change. Hence, climate change has been and will continue to be a major threat to China’s regional economic development.
Key Players
Chinese Central Government
Due to the increasing impacts of climate change on China, the government is pushed to address such issues, whether it is through prevention or adaptation. Recent policy directions have been geared towards facing climate change. For instance, in 2020, President Xi announced that China would be carbon neutral by 2060. Moreover, China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment published the ‘National Strategy on Climate Adaptation 2035’ in February 2022. Given that China is a socialist market economy, the state plays a dominant role in directing funding to sustainable projects that adapt to climate change.
Local Governments
China’s government is divided into the central government and the local government. Local governments have the ability to target specific industries or regions within their governing area to assist in the minimisation of carbon emissions. In Beijing, the local government identified the necessity to reduce power usage in its area, so they increased funding to tackle such issues and contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions.
NGOs and Local Communities
In terms of agriculture, as mentioned above, unpredictable weather and change in climatic systems have led to unstable crop production. Farmers have since lost a significant amount of income, which has brought about negative impacts to their quality of life. To raise awareness, local NGOs such as Friends of Nature have hosted multiple workshops and campaigns for such issues. There have also been increasing community engagement initiatives to promote greater awareness for climate issues by zooming into such potential impacts of climate change.
Conclusion
Climate change has impacted China both naturally and socio-economically, which has changed the direction of government policies. Climate change has become a historical event that has altered the path of development of China, increasing the emphasis on sustainability. As China has pledged to peak emissions by the end of this decade and attain carbon neutrality by 2060, it is expected that China will start to reduce carbon emissions in the near future.
Mitigation measures refer to measures that are used to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. China has made multiple pledges to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. China will stop investing in new coal power plants while investing to widen the usage of electric vehicles. It has also launched multiple carbon offset projects to increase the absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
As China is vulnerable to extreme weather events, melting of glaciers, and sea level rises due to climate change, it has been incorporating more adaptation measures to increase its resilience against climate change. By improving its weather prediction and forecasting systems, and developing more resilient crops and farmland, such methods protect China from the dire consequences of climate change.
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